THE LONG VIEW

ALERT: Historical Patterns Confirm Russia's Systematic Sabotage of China's Ascent Executive Summary: Decades of historical evidence reveal Russia's calculated strategy to derail China's rise through territorial theft, manipulated conflicts, and economic exploitation—from the 19th century unequal treaties to Stalin's betrayal during the Chinese Civil War. Modern dynamics show China now holding leverage, with Russia's Ukraine focus creating vulnerability in Siberia. This briefing exposes the fragile façade of Sino-Russian cooperation and outlines critical indicators for monitoring future escalation. Essential reading for strategic forecasting. *Based on historical analysis by Professor Sarah Paine (Yale University) and documented treaties including Treaty of Aigun (1858) and Treaty of Beijing (1860)*. Primary Indicators: - Russian annexation of Chinese territory exceeding U.S. land east of Mississippi (cited: Treaty of Aigun 1858, Treaty of Beijing 1860) - Stalin's manipulation of Chinese Communist Party during civil war (1940s) - Soviet stripping of Manchurian industrial base post-WWII (83% electrical equipment, 86% mining equipment) - Current Russian military overextension in Ukraine creating Siberian vulnerability - Chinese economic leverage over Russia (9x GDP, population advantage) Recommended Actions: - Monitor Chinese economic penetration into Siberian resource sectors - Strengthen Western alliance coordination to exploit Sino-Russian friction - Develop intelligence on potential Chinese territorial claims against Russia - Prepare contingency plans for Sino-Russian conflict escalation - Enhance diplomatic engagement with Central Asian states as buffer zones Risk Assessment: The historical record reveals an immutable law of Eurasian power dynamics: continental empires cannot tolerate strong neighbors. Russia's centuries-old playbook of neighbor destabilization now faces reversal as China achieves dominance through economic rather than military means. Current cooperation masks fundamental incompatibility—Putin's Ukraine obsession has unwittingly created the very two-front vulnerability Russian strategy historically avoided. When Xi Jinping decides the time is optimal, Siberia's resources and water will be reabsorbed into the Chinese sphere through economic coercion or force. The greatest danger lies in Western miscalculation—either by triggering premature conflict or failing to recognize the coming realignment. *Assessment confidence: High based on consistent historical patterns spanning 150 years of interaction*.