THREAT ASSESSMENT: U.S. 2025 NSS Signals Strategic Recalibration—Economic Nationalism and Hemispheric Focus Intensify Long-Term Pressure on China
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The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy reorients competition toward economic sovereignty and hemispheric control, reducing ideological rhetoric while tightening supply chain leverage and institutional influence in Latin America; if U.S.
Bottom Line Up Front: The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy reflects a strategic pivot toward conservative nationalism and economic-centric competition, reducing ideological rhetoric but intensifying pressure on China through transactional diplomacy, supply chain control, and a reinvigorated Western Hemisphere doctrine—marking not de-escalation, but a reconfiguration of strategic rivalry [Brookings, 2026].
Threat Identification: The United States is shifting from a values-driven, alliance-centered foreign policy to one emphasizing sovereignty, cost efficiency, and narrowly defined national interests. This includes a downgrading of transatlantic commitments, a reframing of China as an economic rather than existential threat, and a renewed enforcement of U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere under a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine [Brookings, 2026]. China’s strategic space in Latin America and global governance is increasingly contested through regulatory, narrative, and institutional means.
Probability Assessment: The strategic reorientation is already in effect as of December 2025, with high likelihood of persistence through 2026–2027 given presidential continuity and congressional support for industrial and technological competitiveness. However, policy volatility remains moderate to high due to President Trump’s improvisational style and potential divergence between the NSS and defense legislation such as the National Defense Authorization Act [Brookings, 2026].
Impact Analysis: The impact is systemic and multi-domain. Economically, competition over supply chains, critical resources, and trade rules will intensify. Geopolitically, the Western Hemisphere is becoming a new arena of great power friction, constraining China’s engagement in Latin America despite its own policy outreach. Institutionally, reduced U.S. participation in global governance may cede narrative influence to China in the Global South, but also empower China to be framed as a disruptive actor in hemispheric security discourse [Brookings, 2026].
Recommended Actions:
1. Strengthen bilateral and regional economic frameworks in Latin America with transparency-focused narratives to counter U.S. “strategic risk” framing.
2. Enhance crisis communication channels with the U.S. on Taiwan and tech competition to mitigate miscalculation risks.
3. Leverage U.S. disengagement from multilateral institutions to deepen cooperation with Global South partners on development and governance models.
4. Monitor implementation gaps between the 2025 NSS and hardline defense policies to identify potential inflection points in U.S. posture [Brookings, 2026].
Confidence Matrix:
- Threat Identification: High confidence — based on explicit language in the 2025 NSS and consistent interpretation by Chinese analysts.
- Probability Assessment: Moderate to high confidence — supported by policy continuity but tempered by leadership unpredictability.
- Impact Analysis: High confidence — grounded in observable shifts in doctrine, regional engagement, and Chinese policy responses.
- Recommended Actions: Moderate confidence — contingent on adaptive U.S. behavior and receptivity of third-party states.
—Marcus Ashworth
Dispatch from Moves S2
Published January 14, 2026