THE LONG VIEW

INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Black Sea Power Shift — Infrastructure, Isolation, and the New Corridor War Executive Summary: A silent but decisive realignment is reshaping the Black Sea: Russia’s strategic reach is receding due to Ukrainian resistance, sanctions, and Turkish blockade of the straits, while NATO, Turkey, and regional states build infrastructure to lock in a new order. Georgia’s Anaclyia port and the Middle Corridor are emerging as economic counterweights to Russian control, backed by NATO’s $2.5B Romanian airbase and energy independence projects in Romania, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. With Russia responding through coercion in Abkhazia and election interference in Moldova, the region is entering a high-stakes phase where infrastructure doubles as strategy — and the balance of Eurasian power hangs in the balance. Primary Indicators: - Georgia's Anaclyia port nearing completion - Russia constructing naval base in Oshamchira, Abkhazia - NATO building $2.5B airbase near Constanța, Romania by 2030 - Middle Corridor trade volume projected to grow from 3M to 11M tons annually by 2030 (World Bank) - Ukraine’s drone strikes degrading Black Sea Fleet - Turkey enforcing Montreux Convention, blocking Russian warships - Romania developing offshore gas fields - Azerbaijan and Armenia normalizing relations with U.S. mediation - Kremlin interfering in Moldova’s 2025 elections Recommended Actions: - Monitor construction progress at Anaclyia and Oshamchira as indicators of escalation - assess NATO’s Constanța base deployment timelines for forward presence planning - track cargo volumes on the Middle Corridor as a measure of Russia’s economic isolation - support Georgian and Moldovan resilience against hybrid threats - expand intelligence sharing with Turkey on Black Sea surveillance - prepare contingency plans for Russian destabilization in Abkhazia or South Ossetia Risk Assessment: The empire is overstretched, its grip slipping — yet its desperation makes it more dangerous. As NATO fortifies Romania and the Middle Corridor gains momentum, Moscow will resort to asymmetric counters: sabotage, cyberattacks on infrastructure, and engineered unrest in Armenia or Moldova. The Black Sea is no longer a Russian lake, but it is not yet a free one. The coming years will test whether collective resolve can outpace covert aggression. Those who believe the war is distant do not see the cables being laid, the ports being built, or the silent fleet movements that precede storms. The next clash may not begin with a shot — but with a port closure, a pipeline rupture, or a phantom tanker vanishing into the fog. —Marcus Ashworth Dispatch from Moves S2