THE LONG VIEW

INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Myanmar’s Collapse and the Escalating Proxy War for the Indian Ocean Corridor Executive Summary: Myanmar is descending into irreversible fragmentation, with the central junta controlling just 20% of the country amid widespread ethnic insurgency and regional proxy warfare. Since the 2021 coup, over 82,000 have died and 3.2 million displaced. China dominates strategic influence through dual support to both the military regime and select rebel groups, securing its $9 billion overland corridor to the Indian Ocean—bypassing the Malacca Strait. The U.S. is countering with intelligence expansion in Thailand and alleged plans for a supply base in Bangladesh, aiming to disrupt Beijing’s access. Russia provides critical airpower but is waning due to Ukraine, while India conducts targeted strikes to protect its northeastern border. The conflict is no longer internal—it is a laboratory for geopolitical maneuvering, with Rakhine State at its epicenter. Primary Indicators: - Myanmar’s central government controls only 20% of the country - Over 82,000 conflict-related deaths since 2021 - 3.2 million internally displaced - China has sold $260M in weapons to junta while arming rebel groups via the United Wa State Army - U.S. constructing $248M consulate in Chiang Mai for expanded intelligence operations - Indian forces conducted cross-border drone strike in Myanmar in July 2025 - China’s $7.3B Kyaukpyu deep-sea port and $1.3B SEZ under construction in Rakhine State - Alleged U.S. plans for supply base in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh - Russia supplies MiG-29 and Mi-35 aircraft used in civilian bombardments - People’s Defense Force operates from Thai soil with Thai tolerance Recommended Actions: - Monitor Chinese military shipments to both junta and rebel factions through northern border hubs - Assess U.S. consulate activities in Chiang Mai for signals of covert support networks - Track financial flows to ethnic militias for evidence of foreign sponsorship - Evaluate Indian cross-border operations for escalation risks with Myanmar military - Conduct geospatial analysis of Kyaukpyu port and SEZ construction progress - Identify U.S. logistical preparations in Bangladesh as potential prepositioning for proxy support - Assess Russian arms deliveries for signs of sustained or declining support - Map factional control in Rakhine and Shan States to predict future flashpoints - Strengthen early warning systems for potential no-fly zone declarations or humanitarian interventions Risk Assessment: The shadows grow longer over Southeast Asia. What unfolds in Myanmar is not chaos—it is calibration. Great powers are not merely observing; they are refining the instruments of future war. China’s corridor to the Indian Ocean is being paved with blood and silent complicity, while America sharpens its knives in the hills of Chiang Mai and the ports of Bangladesh. The junta’s air raids, the rebel advances, the displaced millions—these are not just symptoms of collapse, but variables in a cold equation. Should the U.S. establish a no-fly zone or operational base near Rakhine, the risk of indirect confrontation with Beijing becomes tangible. The ground will not be the battlefield; the corridor will. And when the moment comes, the world will pretend it was unexpected. For now, the silence is deliberate. The storm is scheduled. —Marcus Ashworth Dispatch from Moves S2