THE LONG VIEW

Iran’s Water Crisis: How Mismanagement and Corruption Are Fueling Environmental Collapse and Ethnic Tensions In Plain English: Iran is running out of water, not because it doesn’t rain, but because the government and powerful groups are using it all in wasteful and unfair ways. Big farms and factories, often connected to political leaders, are taking huge amounts of water, while rivers dry up and lakes disappear. This is hurting regular people, especially in minority regions, who are losing their land and livelihoods. If this continues, millions may be forced to move, and tensions between different ethnic groups could turn into serious conflict, threatening the country’s stability. Summary: Iran faces a dire and accelerating water crisis, primarily driven by human actions rather than natural drought alone. Once a symbol of cultural prosperity, cities like Isfahan now watch their life-giving rivers, such as the Zayandeh River, dry up due to water being diverted to politically connected industries and farms. The Mobarak Steel plant, for example, consumes nearly 40% of the water used in three major provinces. The crisis is systemic, rooted in the influence of a “Water Mafia” comprising government officials, corporate leaders, and IRGC affiliates who manipulate water policy for profit. The Iran Water and Power Resources Development Company (IWPC) has spearheaded a dam-building frenzy—increasing from 316 dams in 2012 to 647 by 2018—many without environmental review, leading to ecosystem collapse. Agriculture consumes 90% of Iran’s water, often inefficiently, with high-water crops like melons grown in arid zones for minimal profit. Groundwater reserves, which take centuries to refill, are being drained at triple the natural recharge rate, with up to 70% of the 500 billion cubic meters of aquifers already depleted. Despite five consecutive years of drought, the government continues prioritizing food self-sufficiency and large infrastructure projects over sustainability. Inter-basin water transfers and desalination pipelines—such as the 826 km system supplying Kerman and Yazd—offer temporary relief but are costly and energy-intensive. These projects often divert water from ethnic minority regions like Khuzestan (Arab), Chaharmahal Bakhtiari (Lurs), and West Azerbaijan (Azerbaijanis, Kurds) to Persian-majority areas, fueling resentment. The drying of Lake Urmia, down 90% in volume, has become a flashpoint for ethnic tension, including protests in 2025. Analysts warn that continued mismanagement could displace millions by 2050, deepening internal divisions and threatening national unity. The crisis, therefore, is not just environmental but political and social, with the potential to destabilize the country from within. Key Points: - Iran is ranked fourth globally for extreme water scarcity, nearing “day zero” when reserves run dry. - The Zayandeh River in Isfahan is nearly dry due to water diversion to industrial and agricultural projects. - The Mobarak Steel plant consumes 210 million cubic meters of water annually—40% of the combined use of Isfahan, Yazd, and Kerman. - The “Water Mafia” refers to a network of officials, IRGC members, and corporate leaders who manipulate water policy for profit. - Iran has built over 647 dams since the 1990s, many without environmental assessments, contributing to ecological collapse. - Groundwater reserves have been depleted by up to 70%, with 660,000 legal and 360,000 illegal wells in operation. - Agriculture uses 90% of Iran’s water, often inefficiently, with high-water crops like melons grown in dry regions. - Lake Urmia has lost over 90% of its volume, becoming a symbol of ecological and ethnic conflict. - Five major desalination pipelines are being built to transfer water from the Persian Gulf, but they are costly and energy-intensive. - Water transfers from minority regions to Persian-majority provinces are fueling ethnic tensions and protests. - Millions could be displaced by 2050, leading to increased migration and inter-ethnic conflict. Notable Quotes: - “Nations can survive conflicts and sanctions but not empty rivers.” - “The Zayandeh River, literally meaning life-giving river, is now, well, lifeless.” - “By any measure, Iran's water crisis is artificial. It is the result of overuse and negligence by the very institutions that claim to protect the country.” - “Every river and lake keeps its own ledger.” - “Ethnic Lurs now accuse the Persian majority Isfahan of plundering their water.” - “In Khuzestan, Arab communities charge the government with trying to replace them with Lurs.” - “Drought does more than weather crops. It redraws the borders within.” Data Points: - Iran ranks 4th globally for extreme water scarcity (World Resources Institute). - Number of dams in Iran: 316 in 2012 → 647 in 2018. - Over 100 new dams planned as of 2019. - Latian Dam capacity: 95 million cubic meters → holds only 9 million today. - Mobarak Steel plant uses 210 million cubic meters of water annually. - Agriculture accounts for ~90% of Iran’s water use. - Iran has 660,000 legal wells and 360,000 illegal wells. - Groundwater reserves: ~500 billion cubic meters total, up to 70% depleted. - Annual recharge: ~45 billion cubic meters - annual extraction: ~135 billion cubic meters. - Lake Urmia has lost over 90% of its volume. - 826 km desalination pipeline supplies 180 million cubic meters/year to Kerman and Yazd. - Second pipeline under construction: +200 million cubic meters/year. - Fifth consecutive year of drought as of 2025. - Protests in West Azerbaijan in March 2025 over Kurdish migration linked to water crisis. - Millions could be displaced by 2050 due to water scarcity. Controversial Claims: - The Iranian government is enabling a “Water Mafia” involving the IRGC and high-level officials who divert water for personal and political gain. - Water diversion policies are intentionally marginalizing ethnic minorities, with Arab communities in Khuzestan accusing the state of attempting demographic replacement with Lurs. - Large-scale inter-basin water transfers and dam projects are being implemented without proper environmental assessments, leading to irreversible ecological damage. - The government’s food self-sufficiency policy is economically and environmentally irrational, wasting scarce water resources on low-value crops. - Desalination pipelines, while presented as solutions, may backfire by increasing ethnic tensions and failing to address root causes. Technical Terms: - Water Mafia - Inter-basin transfer - Groundwater aquifer - Desalination - Day zero (water scarcity) - Ecological collapse - Food self-sufficiency - Environmental assessment - Recharge rate - Over-extraction - Zayandeh River - Iran Water and Power Resources Development Company (IWPC) - Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Wetland degradation - Internal displacement —Sir Edward Pemberton Dispatch from Moves S2